The Keys to the White House is a book about a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. The system, inspired by earthquake research,  was developed in  by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The Keys are based on the theory that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling the White House and that campaigning by challenging or incumbent-party candidates will have no impact on results. According to this theory, a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president based on the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term — economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal, and policy innovation.
According to the theory, if the nation fares well during the term of the incumbent party, that party wins another four years in office; otherwise, the challenging party prevails. According to the Keys model, nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts conventional electioneering as political spin, has changed their prospects at the polls.
Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies count for virtually nothing on Election Day. Through the application of pattern recognition methodology used in geophysics to data for American presidential elections from the first election with a four-year record of competition between Republicans and Democrats onwards, Lichtman and Keilis-Borok developed 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party.
When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote. Unlike many alternative models, the Keys include no polling data. In addition, the Keys do not presume that voters are driven by economic concerns alone. Answers to the questions posed in the Keys require judgments. But the judgments are constrained by explicit definitions of each Key.
For example, a contested incumbent party nomination is defined as one in which the losing candidates combined secured at least one-third of the delegate votes. Judgments are also constrained by how individual keys have been turned in all previous elections covered by the system. For example, to qualify as charismatic and turn key 12 or 13 — the most judgmental of all keys — an incumbent or challenging-party candidate must measure up to Ronald ReaganJohn F.
KennedyBenjamin Franklin and Theodore Roosevelt. In the contested election ofthe system predicted the popular vote winner, although not actual winners. As a result inhe predicted using his system that Gore would be the next president; Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. The one exception to this rule is the election ofwhere the replacement of independent Supreme Court justice David Davis with a Republican on the Electoral Commission of giving the GOP a majority on that board and a political deal put Republican Rutherford B.
Hayes in the White House in return for ending Reconstruction. This happened in spite of three major circumstances: firstly, the Republican Party had nine negative keys that year; secondly, Hayes lost the popular vote by three percent: and thirdly, at least three states had conflicting sets of election returns, any one of which could have thrown the electoral college to Samuel Tilden who the majority-Republican Electoral Commission declared to have lost the electoral college by a single vote.
The Keys are statements that favor victory in the popular vote count for the incumbent party.The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. Welcome to our new Democratic primary forecast. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business.PredictWise Gives Hillary Clinton an 89% Chance of Winning
See something you think is wrong? Send us an email. Forecast model by Nate Silver. Illustrations by Fabio Buonocore. Download polls. Download forecast: today ; all dates. National view National view. Current pledged delegates Biden. Current pledged delegates Buttigieg. Current pledged delegates Bloomberg. Current pledged delegates Sanders. Bernie Sanders dropped out April 8, making Joe Biden the presumptive nominee. We will continue to add results from the ongoing primaries, but this forecast has stopped updating.
How does FiveThirtyEight forecast elections? See more from FiveThirtyEight on. Iowa forecast and results Iowa voted on Feb. New Hampshire forecast and results New Hampshire voted on Feb.In this lesson, students analyze data like current polling numbers, primary results and voter turnout to design a strategy for predicting the outcome of the presidential election.
Begin by having students take a look at the latest presidential election forecast from The Upshot. Ask students to think about the mathematical model that underlies this prediction: What factors, rules, data and mathematical concepts are being used by The Upshot to predict the winner of the presidential election? Have students examine some of the features of the forecast page to get them thinking about what information they might consider in building their own mathematical model for predicting the election.
Have students take a look at the latest presidential election polling data and consider the following questions below. Questions For discussion and reading comprehension:.
How does The New York Times determine a national polling average? How does the national polling average compare to the presidential election forecast? What states seem most important in deciding the outcome of the presidential election? What factors might cause a state to switch from supporting one candidate to supporting the other?
Why might two polls from the same state have different results? Students must also include a word description of the methods used to produce their predictions. Below are some simple approaches students can consider when designing their own prediction strategy. Using any of these methods exclusively may not constitute a strong entry for the A.
Use Current Polling Data. A straightforward strategy for predicting the winner of each state would be to use the latest aggregate polling data from a reputable source. The New York Times offers a state-by-state probabilities chart that provides a projected outcome for each state as determined by each of several media outlets, including The Times itself as well as FiveThirtyEight and Daily Kos, among others.
Students could choose one of the outlets to use as the basis for their predictions, but to satisfy the written requirement of the contest they should be prepared to provide some justification for their choice. Students could also think about ways to mathematically combine the prediction results from the various sources. They could look at multiple sources and choose the winner of each state based on, say, how the majority of the sources project the outcome. Another strategy would be to use historical data from past presidential elections.
Students can look at the past 50 years of Electoral College results and explore more detailed data with this state-by-state record of the presidential election in which Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney. Students could look at historical trends in how each state has voted for president, and use that information to inform their predictions for For states that historically have voted for one party, the decision may be easy; for those that have supported both major parties in the past, more analysis may be required to make a decision.
A more complex strategy could involve looking at voter turnout data. Students could use this data to project what voter participation might be like in each state for the general election and make predictions based on those projections.
Students can also review this Election Results page from The New York Times that has the presidential primary results and vote counts. Another more complex strategy might involve looking at information that is somehow related to the presidential election.I will be amazed if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. The water around him is rising fast, and he is likely to be long gone byeither via impeachment or resignation in a deal that spares him prosecution.
Fake News reporting, a complete fabrication, that I am concerned about the meeting my wonderful son, Donald, had in Trump Tower. This was a meeting to get information on an opponent, totally legal and done all the time in politics - and it went nowhere. I did not know about it! The tweet undercut a lie that Donald Trump Jr. That lie was cooked up in close consultation with Trump senior. Documents stolen from the Democratic National Committee and members of the Clinton campaign were later used in an overt effort to sway the election.
When the Trump Tower meeting was uncovered, the President instructed his son and staff to lie about the meeting, and told them precisely which lies to use. The President is attempting to end the investigation into this meeting and other instances of attempted collusion between his campaign staff and representatives of the Russian government. All of this is more than enough to justify an obstruction of justice charge, a prime ground for impeachment.
And it should be more than enough to cause Republican defenders to distance themselves from Trump. As special counsel Robert Mueller ferrets out more and more detail, a panicky Trump gets crazier and crazier.
He will likely do himself in. Pence is a famously inept politician, who was on track to be defeated for re-election as the Republican governor of Indiana — quite a trick. The hardcore Trump base will be furious if when Trump is forced out. If Pence succeeds Trump, there will be a free-for-all, with some candidates running as the true successor to Trump and others trying to reclaim a sane Republican Party.
The latter could include moderates John Kasich, governor of Ohio, who is already positioning himself for a run; Maryland governor Larry Hogan; and Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker. Their claim to success is that they got elected as Republicans in normally Democratic states. Their problem is that the electorate in Republican primaries is far to their right.
Predicting the Presidential Election with Baseball
The former could include any number of frothing at the mouth members of the House Freedom Caucus, plus of course Pence. So my bet is that the Republican nominee will be someone other than Trump, and will be presiding over a badly fractured party. What a gift to Democrats! Even Kirsten Gillibrand is trying to position herself to the left of Elizabeth Warren. One can debate whether the formerly centrist Gillibrand has had a sincere conversion or whether she is an opportunistic weathervane.
But her stances say a lot about where the Democratic weather is. Nobody has officially declared, of course, but as a splendid profile of Warren in New York magazine explains, Warren is increasingly the favorite of the activist party base and a front-runner to be the nominee. Another likely finalist is Cory Booker. If Bernie Sanders goes again, he could be a third finalist. He is almost as old as Bernie. Biden will turn 78 in Novemberwhen Sanders will be Biden is loved by the pundit class, but in two previous primary runs, he lost badly.
If Sanders and Warren get into a slugfest and divide the left, a more centrist economic candidate who is left on social issues like Booker could win. There are three problems. The Whip, Steny Hoyer, at 79, is older then Pelosi. Second, even though some Democratic candidates have pledged not to vote for Pelosi for speaker in order to take that issue off the table, she has been a very effective leader and there is a great deal of loyalty to her.
Third, there is no consensus candidate among back-benchers to succeed Pelosi. Ryan would not do much better if he challenged Pelosi again.If the American League wins, will that mean a win for the Republican candidate? If the National League wins, does that mean a Democratic president for the next four years?
If the National League won, then the election went to the Democrat. Since then, the World Series has accurately predicted the presidential race 5 out of 9 times, giving is a batting average of 0. The Series is a better predictor of presidents when it goes to seven games. In all of the following election years, the Series got it right.
And the winners were The Series got hot again in and accurately predicted the next four presidents, starting with George W.
Washington Redskins Predict Presidential Elections
Actually, it was only two presidents--Bush and Obama, both of whom won reelection--but you can't fault the Series for that. Init was almost too close to call. Maybe the Series was banking on the popular vote, which was won by Democrat Hilary Clinton.
Darn that electoral college! Many Americans swear by patterns and coincidences to help them predict presidential elections.
Other examples of 'predictors' from past and present years include the following:. Obviously some of these predictors have a greater basis in reality than others.
While most people would say that the Lakers or the Redskins winning is more chance than anything else, the state of the economy does have a huge impact on the presidential election. After all of these predictors, are we any closer to knowing who will win the next presidential election?
The answer, of course, is no. Share Flipboard Email. Issues The U. Legal System U. Foreign Policy U. Liberal Politics U. Martin Kelly. History Expert.The Iowa caucuses are perhaps the most bizarre and archaic facet of the United States' voting process. To sum it up as succinctly as possible, the Republicans and Democrats each hold these evening events throughout Iowa's 1, precincts, and attendance is required to vote with some small exceptions. Republicans choose their nominee via a secret ballot, while the Democratic events are described by Vox as "rowdy, hours-long public affairs" involving debates, and voters must actually cross the floor to literally stand with their candidate's supporters.
They're basically adults playing Red Rover, but the Iowa caucuses do often predict the presidential nominees. It's a bunch of crazy nonsense, but sinceit's a bunch of crazy nonsense that's given a lot of weight in terms of choosing each party's nominee. Because voters let it. Sure, the people of Iowa are not at all representative of the rest of the country, but the presidential hopefuls are still looking for their vote.
And the media coverage makes it seem like it's important, so voters believe it is.
And once everybody believes that something's important, by default, it is. It's sort of like how the Kardashians operate: they're on TV and magazine covers, so fans assume there must be a good reason for it. So they watch the shows and buy the magazines and then the Kardashians are super important.
Make sense now? Voters assume that Iowa knows what they're talking about because they're on TV, so when the primaries come to their states, they take Iowa's word for it. So, how often does Iowa get it right, or at least skew the rest of the country? Of the ten Democratic caucuses held between andeight of the winners eventually went on to secure their parties nomination. One notable exception was Bill Clinton, who only got 3 percent of the the Democratic vote — three percent! Over on the Republican side, only six of the winners have gone on to be nominated.
The last two caucuses have been particularly out of step with the rest of the country; saw a win for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and 's winner was former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Vox pointed out that four out of five registered party members don't attend caucuses, and that the Republican caucuses have recently been dominated by evangelical activists, which explains a bit. In fact, according to the Chicago Sun-Timesthat Huckabee win was decided by only two percent of Iowa's voters. Going by the data, which is only a sample of 10 and not all that scientifically significant, the Democratic winner has an 80 percent chance of becoming the nominee, and the Republican winner has a 60 percent chance less so if it ends up being a far-right candidate with little national appeal.
But the most important thing to remember is that a handful of people in Iowa are no experts in politics; they're just the first to vote, and therefore given way too much attention for doing so. The results don't hold any weight if voters across the country don't let them.This topic is currently marked as "dormant"—the last message is more than 90 days old.
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Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?
LibraryThing All topics Hot topics Book discussions. Bush, Republican New York Giants. Bush George W. Bush Beatles You are certainly allowed to have your opinion as to who should be president - we just ask that you don't discuss politics here. It's not about what your politics are - it's just that we prefer that NONE of that stuff gets discussed here. It caused lots of problems in that we simply don't wish to repeat. Please edit or delete your comment.
I'm the opposite, beatles - I was rooting for the Patriots, but maybe I should root for the Giants! I'd be fine if we'd been Bush-less, and I'd take four more years of Barack in a blink. He's done a good job, in my view, of getting us out of the mess created by the last Bush.
That's not even considering the current group of uninspiring Republican candidates. Of course, this is why we hold elections. The New York Giants is a football team built to last! Tom Coughlin is keeping his word and Eli Manning has the audacity to hope for an even bigger and better victory than the one in But though he was down, he wasn't out! The message for next week is simple: "Pass, Pass, Pass. Jobs, jobs, jobs! Four more yards! I forgot where I was.
Super Bowl Winners in a Presidential Election Year
I don't know what it means politically, but I'm pulling for the Giants. Big Manning fan of both of them. Or how about this? I was rooting for the San Francisco 49ers as well as the packers. If they had won, we would have had Snoopy for president:. Well, I was shocked when the Packers lost. And I didn't think the Giants would make it to the Superbowl, though I was fairly certain the Patriots would.